2 Nuke Newstories - NKorea & Iran

[RonOnGuitar]

NORTH KOREA:



From: Straights Times - Asia



SEPT 13, 2004

High-stakes nuclear game in East Asia

Region may be closer to a nuclear arms race than previously thought



By Jonathan Eyal



LONDON - Revelations over the weekend about a massive and mysterious explosion on North Korea's border with China have intensified the feverish speculations about the country's nuclear programme.



While the chances still are that the explosion was of the conventional variety and not a nuclear test, the steadily rising tide of rumours and contradictory information represent a clear indication that the North Korean nuclear crisis is about to reach its most volatile stage.



Regardless of who wins in the United States presidential elections in November, Pyongyang will become one of the key and most urgent priorities for any US administration.



And Washington will have to deal on this matter not only with the unpredictable North Korean regime, but also with US ally South Korea.



As always, very little information is available about the latest North Korean blast, but what is known is hardly encouraging. It is clear that the explosion was huge, much bigger than the military train explosion in April, an accident in which apparently 170 North Koreans were killed.



US intelligence reports, leaked to the American media, talk of a mushroom cloud of up to 4km in diameter, consistent - at least in physical appearance - to what will happen in a rudimentary nuclear test.



Other circumstantial evidence appears even more ominous.



The blast took place in Kimhyungjik county in Ryanggang province in the north-east, near North Korea's border with China, an area with a sparse civilian population, but a high concentration of military installations.



Furthermore, US satellites have detected over the past few weeks an unusual amount of military movements in the region, consistent with preparations for some kind of a weapons test.



And, to round off the picture, the North Koreans appear to have been very calm about the event, claiming that it was a 'routine event', rather than an accident.



For the moment, both the American and South Korean authorities claim the explosion was not nuclear-related.



But the difficulty is that both governments may have a very strong political interest in not appearing to be alarmed.



With an election in the offing, the last thing President George W. Bush needs now is a full-fledged North Korean nuclear crisis, inviting accusations from Senator John Kerry, his Democratic opponent, that America's entire anti-proliferation policy has failed.



The South Koreans, mired in their own difficulties, are hardly likely to welcome such a development as well.



Precisely because of this, the timing may have been perfect for North Korea to undertake now the nuclear test it has been planning for years.



Nevertheless, and despite these conspiracy theories, the chances still are that the latest blast was not nuclear.



First, it is difficult to hide the seismic aftermath of such a nuclear blast, which would have been picked up by many other neighbouring countries, apart from the US and South Korea.



Second, even if one assumes that the US administration may have a political interest in hiding the real significance of what has happened in North Korea, the deliberate falsification of evidence would be a high-risk strategy for Mr Bush.



If information of a deliberate cover-up subsequently leaked out - as it always does in the US - the impact on his re-election campaign would be devastating.



The assumption, therefore, must be that Washington is correct, and that the latest North Korean explosion was of the conventional variety.



Yet this is hardly reassuring, for the latest murky episode is merely another twist in what is turning out to be a much more complex saga.



North Korea is known to be developing a family of long-range missiles called the Taepodong precisely in the area where the current blast has been recorded.



Taepodong 1, the first variety of this system, was test-fired over Japan in 1998, and the family of missiles was designed to carry nuclear charges.



According to South Korean intelligence reports, the engine test for the Taepodong 2 improved variety was carried out in May this year.



A full missile test is the logical next step, and it is this which we may have witnessed now.



So, although the nuclear test itself may not have happened, North Korea's advance towards the acquisition of a fully functioning nuclear capability is continuing relentlessly.



And then there is South Korea itself.



The recent revelations that some of its scientists produced enriched uranium a few years ago using lasers have been dismissed by the the government as unimportant.



The quantity involved - 0.2g - was insignificant for any weapon capability, and Seoul has also claimed that the scientists worked without government knowledge.



Perhaps, but these claims are not very persuasive.



First, the quantity of enriched uranium is hardly the issue, since nobody is suggesting that South Korea is about to build a nuclear weapon.



But what matters is that the uranium produced is close to weapons grade, far more concentrated in the active uranium-235 isotope than would be required for the country's nuclear energy reactors.



And the subsequent revelations that South Korea had also conducted a plutonium-based nuclear experiment two decades ago merely strengthens the conclusion that the South, like its northern neighbour, had an active programme which at least could lead to a nuclear capability.



The suggestion that all this was done without the knowledge of the government in Seoul hardly requires serious examination.



The conclusions are truly earth-shattering.



For years, the US has worked under the assumption that the biggest challenge in the region came from North Korea; it now turns out that the problem runs much deeper, and may include both Koreas.



Further afield, Japan and Taiwan also have all the technology and know-how to produce nuclear weapons in a short period of time.



Although everyone denies it, all the region's states are now having another look at their military posture, and this includes their military capabilities.



And for a simple reason: In many respects, the question of North Korea was always just a sideshow to much deeper strategic changes taking place throughout the region.



According to opinion polls, a majority of South Korean citizens certainly fear the North Koreans' military capabilities, but regard nuclear weapons as their historic right, their ultimate guarantee against a future aggressive China and Japan.



Japan, too, regards North Korea as an immediate threat, but views China as the long-term challenge.



And Taiwan, forced by the US to abandon its nuclear research programme decades ago, still considers the weapon as its ultimate guarantee against forced unification with China.



The announced draw-down of US military bases from the region has merely intensified this military pirouette, which has until now been conducted very secretly.



One way or another, the task for a new US president after he steps into the White House's Oval Office next January will be huge.



The challenge is no longer merely one of persuading the North Korean regime to relinquish its nuclear aspirations, but also of reassuring America's allies in the region that they do not need to advance down the nuclear road either.



The task is still feasible. Yet, one false step in these diplomatic negotiations could plunge the region into a full-fledged nuclear arms race.



So, regardless of its nature, the latest mysterious blast in North Korea has lifted the dust over a whole raft of other secret activities in that corner of Asia.





The writer is director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London and a regular contributor to the Straits Times.



=====================================

IRAN:

(This story reports a speech given in May of this year.)



From: Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)





5/23/04 Clip No. 252



Iranian Republican Guard Official in Tehran University Lecture (Part II): We Plan To Target US Nuclear Warheads on US Soil; Will Take Over England Itself Not Embassy



Hassan Abassi, who heads the Center of External Security Doctrinal Analysis of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps gave a lecture at Tehran University in May. The following are excerpts from the lecture posted in an audio version on the Internet at http://khabarnameh.gooya.com/nabavi/archives/real/abbasi-hassan.rm



Abbasi Pay close attention to wily England! I am not saying anyone should take over its embassy. It has already removed all of its documents from it. we need to take over England itself.



Take a look at the book "Women of Vietnam". It contains a propaganda pamphlet in which was written that when American soldiers train in the bases – and here I must apologize to all of the sisters and ladies present – they raise their gun in one hand and they place their other hand on their genitals, and they call both of them "gun." "Gun" [in English] means cannon. They do this every day at reveille. They have a directive that whenever they set foot in a country, one of their first jobs is to change the racial situation there.



It would be an honor to do something that would make the Americans afraid. If it is possible to strike fear in the White House and in Tel-Aviv and to scare the Zionists and the Americans, that would be a great honor. This kind of terrorism is sacred. I'd be honored to do anything like that. If it is be possible for me to do this, I will. I will certainly present my plans on this matter. On the subject of sacred terrorism and terrorizing, the Koran speaks of "The party of God," are those who love the beloved of God, and "The party of Satan," are those who love the enemies of God. If we can strike fear among the enemies of God, in the party of Satan and in the heart of Satan, this will be an honor. Why shouldn't we do this? Why should violence be bad over there? Is it not the case that modernity, Christianity and Judaism advanced themselves through violence? We would be honored to turn the violence of modernity, Judaism and Christianity against them.



In response to what he [Vice President Cheney] said, that he will uproot this nation, I swear by my honor, by the Koran – though it's inappropriate to swear by the Koran – as head of the Center for Strategic Studies, the rival of Cato Institute, Hudson Institute, Rand Corporation and American Enterprise Institute which are working to uproot Iran – I make a pact with God, with the blood of the martyrs and with this nation, that I will prepare, with God's help, harsh strategies and doctrines to uproot the Anglo-Saxon race, and I will present these plans on the Internet.



Mr. George W. Bush and Mr. Tony Blair, you said that you would reap in Iran the fruits of the war in Iraq. it was not the president of Iran who fired RPGs against your tanks in the war. Mr. Khatami, Mr. Hasan Rouhani, and Mr. Kamal Kharrazi were not the ones who stood facing your warships in the Persian Gulf. It was I who filmed your warships. When (USS) Kitty Hawk was here, when (USS) Wisconsin, (USS) New Jersey, and (USS) Missouri were here, it was I who filmed them. Mr. Khatami! It was I who planted the mines that sunk the Bridgeton tanker. Mr. Khatami! It was I who nurtured Hizbullah in Lebanon and not you.



We have only one lesson: The lesson of jihad and martyrdom. So, Dick Cheney! We will uproot the Anglo-Saxon race. This is retaliation. I will only say this once: We have two million Iranians there [in the U.S.]. You can be sure that I will recruit from among them guerillas against you.



If 11 people succeeded in causing September 11, is it not clear that we are capable of acting? We don't need nuclear weapons. You have 6,000 nuclear warheads on your soil. Those 6,000 warheads are the target of our plans. The guerilla groups will go and destroy those warheads there. Not Iranian guerilla groups, but groups from all Islamic countries. You can expel all of them. We are also working on the Mexicans and the Argentinians. We will organize everyone who has problems with America. When our Internet site goes up, the American friends should get hold of the address. We've prepared plans concerning the American Achilles' heal and their weaknesses. We have identified all of their weaknesses on land, in the air, by sea, their technological weaknesses, etc., and we will pass on addresses to the guerilla organizations of the entire world concerning these, America's weaknesses.



We have established a department that will take care of England. England's demise is on our agenda.



If America attacks us, Don't worry at all. It won't be like what you've seen in Afghanistan and in Iraq. In Southern Iran we have a 2000 km coast and 36 islands. The average depth of the Persian Gulf is between 45-50 meters. The Deepest spot there is 94 meters deep between the islands of Abu Musa and Tonb. This is a very suitable spot for maritime guerrilla warfare. Our special forces are definitely ready for action there.



Through the Straits of Hormuz, 67% of the world's total energy passes. You must know this. Imagine I'm gone abd, God willing, you want to face America. Take a tanker to the Straits Of Hormuz and sink it there. The tanker won't sink because the water is shallow there – about 50 meters. The tanker itself is 55 meters high, and when it will lie on the surface, half of it will protrude. It will take five months until it will be salvaged. A rise in oil prices, as you have seen, causes the West fever. These are the weaknesses.